Political alignment of 18-34 year olds

Young Voters Increasingly Independent

NBC and GenForward (associated with the University of Chicago) is releasing bi monthly survey results (toplines) focusing on the evolving politics of Americans ages 18-34. Interviews were conducted from October 28 through November 10, 2017  and included 1,876 responses. Here are the results, by race, of party or political alignment:

AlignmentAfrican AmericanAsian AmericanLatinxWhiteTotal
Democratic5443402634
Independent2225253229
Republican514132719
Other1717191617

The NBC / Genforward poll was a national poll so used a national ratio for race . Here are the results when you weight the results according to the racial makeup in Oregon

AlignmentNational AverageWeighted for Oregon
Democratic3429.4
Independent2929.4
Republican1923.3
Other1715.8

The most surprising thing to me is the large number of “other” responses. I am assuming that most of those are not constitutional nationalists. They are most likely closer to the Democratic Party. And in fact, when the survey asked for not only party affiliation and leaners, but which party they more closely aligned with the results were:

  • Democratic 52% (17% of whom said more closely aligned)
  • Republican 29% (9% of whom said more closely aligned)
  • Independent 19%

By any evaluation, nationally and in Oregon this is pretty good news for the Democratic Party, very bad news for the Republican Party, and good news for the independent movement. And it’s similar to how Motor Voter data has been trending.

Millenials Want a New Party

In another more recent NBC/GenForward poll, 71% of millenials stated that we need a third major party, while only 26% agreed that the Democratic and Republican Parties do an adequate job of representing us. 59 percent have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party and 42 percent have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. On the whole, millennials overwhelmingly do not think either party cares about people like them. When evaluated by race and gender, the millenials most supportive of a new third party were white men (80%) and African American women (73%).

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