Oregon Independent Movement Booms in 2013

Or-Voters-300x1972013 was an off year following a presidential election, meaning no get out the vote drives by the major parties. So 2013 showed a drop in registered voters of  53,504 voters or  2.43%

However, December, 2013 voter registration statistics from the Oregon Secretary of State show that he Democratic and Republican parties continue to lose members at a rate 50%  greater than  that natural attrition rate.  Democrats lost 3.88% of their members and the Republican Party shrank by 3.70%

Meanwhile, non affiliated voters have held steady in 2013, and two minor parties, the Independent Party of Oregon and the Working Families Party, made significant gains in 2013. Here are the numbers.

 

Party_______Dec, 2012_________ December 2013       _______+/-_________+/-%

 

Dem                 870,500                     836,651             (33,849)               (3.88%)

 

Rep.                 682,731                     657,424                (25,307)            (3.70%)

 

NAV                 492,419                      491,297             (1,122)                 (.22%)

 

IPO                   95,394                       98,526              +3,132                  +3.28%

 

Other Minor      58,464                       62,070                 + 3,606                +6.17%

 

TOTAL VOTER   2,199,508         2,146,004                 (53,504)              (2.43%)

Quick Takes:

Either most NAV’s are so ignorant they don’t know the difference between checking “Non Affiliated Voter” and “Independent Party”, or they are purposefully joining an independent movement. Even if they don’t know exactly what the IPO stands for.

While all other minor parties increased by 3,606, a single minor party, the Working Families Party, increased by over 5,000 members, accounting for the entire increase in this catagory. Working Families Party was founded a few years ago by some private and public unions. It is well funded, but at 9,565 total members, it still has less than  10% as many members as the IPO and has by far the lowest turnout percentage of any party.  Minor parties other than the IPO and Working Families Party actually contracted.

The Democratic Party is shrinking faster than the Republican Party. Though both are losing ground to the IPO and NAV voters.

The Political Mendoza line is now just 5,495 voters. Next month or the following month, the Oregon Republicans will number fewer than NAV’s and minor party members combined. Yet Republican voters will still get a state paid for primary.

Oregon Voter Breakdown:

  • Democratic:     38.99%
  • Republican:     30.63%
  • NAV:              22.89%
  • IPO:               4.59%
  • Other Minor:    2.9%

 

Comments

  1. […] analysis is consistent with this report, detailing the drop in total numbers of Democratic voters and Republican voters, the holding pattern […]

  2. […] analysis is consistent with this report, detailing the drop in total numbers of Democratic voters and Republican voters, the holding pattern […]

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