Ballot return stats: BM101

Day 7 of Ballot returns for BM101 special election.

How do current ballot return statistics compare to past elections?

The first table shows average percent of ballot returned, out of all eligible ballots, on day seven by election type.

The second table shows who is returning the ballots by voter affiliation

 

Daily Ballot Return: Day 7 averages

Average ballot return for seventh day of election, by election type
YEARPrimaryGeneralSpecial
Average/All years14.322.530.8
BM101 election16.4
201617.728.7
201412.620.7
20121325.2
2010121826
200721
20061217
2004153040
2003141643
200224
  • It appears ballots aren’t coming in as fast as they generally do for a special election. The returns are more like a primary election. Is that because voters are undecided about the issue? Or perhaps less informed since this is a more technocratic issue than most ballot measures. Or, is the issue simply one that doesn’t personally effect voters who have insurance through their employment or through government programs like medicare, which is most voters.
  • Will a low turnout favor opponents or proponents?

Ballot returns by affiliation

PARTYRETURNEDAs % of PartyAs % Of Vote
Democratic197,40920.645.3
Republican145,14320.733.3
Non Affiliated65,7668.115.1
Indy Party19,312164.4
MINOR PARTIES
Libertarian2,12411.20.5
Pacific Green1,60415.90.3
Working Families1,0289.90.2
Constitution50013.50.1
Progressive31015.70.1
  • At risk of beating a dead horse, it’s clear that Independent Party voters are not the same as non affiliated voters. They clearly vote more like major party voters. They are returning ballots at twice the rate of NAV’s. That is not the demographic profile of a mass of ill informed non affiliated voters who can’t figure out how to read a voter registration card.
  • IPO voters make up a large enough percentage to swing a close election.
  • The left wing and right wing minor parties cancel each other out.
  • Democratic voters make up 45% of all voters. If Most Democrats vote yes, and most Republicans vote no. Then the Yes campaign has to get just 25% of the non affiliated/IPO vote.

 

Powered by WordPress. Designed by Woo Themes