Day 7 of Ballot returns for BM101 special election.
How do current ballot return statistics compare to past elections?
The first table shows average percent of ballot returned, out of all eligible ballots, on day seven by election type.
The second table shows who is returning the ballots by voter affiliation
Daily Ballot Return: Day 7 averagesAverage ballot return for seventh day of election, by election type
- It appears ballots aren’t coming in as fast as they generally do for a special election. The returns are more like a primary election. Is that because voters are undecided about the issue? Or perhaps less informed since this is a more technocratic issue than most ballot measures. Or, is the issue simply one that doesn’t personally effect voters who have insurance through their employment or through government programs like medicare, which is most voters.
- Will a low turnout favor opponents or proponents?
Ballot returns by affiliation
|PARTY||RETURNED||As % of Party||As % Of Vote|
- At risk of beating a dead horse, it’s clear that Independent Party voters are not the same as non affiliated voters. They clearly vote more like major party voters. They are returning ballots at twice the rate of NAV’s. That is not the demographic profile of a mass of ill informed non affiliated voters who can’t figure out how to read a voter registration card.
- IPO voters make up a large enough percentage to swing a close election.
- The left wing and right wing minor parties cancel each other out.
- Democratic voters make up 45% of all voters. If Most Democrats vote yes, and most Republicans vote no. Then the Yes campaign has to get just 25% of the non affiliated/IPO vote.